Island Lab · Pollica · Year-by-Year Outlook, Version 0.2
Ten years, from reacting to preventing.
The three maps drawn forward, now calibrated to Pollica: a town of about 2,048 people and its roughly 1,078 ha of Posidonia. Each panel is one measure across year 1 to 10, sharing a single timeline. The spine is the shift in posture: early years spend on reacting to damage, enforcement and monitoring, on grant money; later years spend on preventing and restoring, paid for increasingly by the visitor levy and the demand the town built. Pollica has no marine protected area today, so protection starts from zero. Hover any panel for the year's numbers.
Calibrated to Pollica, with flagged estimates
The scale is anchored to real figures (see projects/pollica-economics.md): a town of 2,048 people and 1,141 households, about 1,078 ha of Posidonia off the coast (ISPRA 2017, measured from the polygons), willingness to pay near 10 euro per household per year, and the Balearic tourism-levy model. Pollica-level tourism and fleet counts are not published, so visitor-nights and boat numbers are scaled down from Province-of-Salerno data and flagged as estimates. The meadow's ecosystem-service value is a wide band, on the order of 0.3 to 23 million euro per year (1,078 ha times 283 to 21,660 euro/ha/yr), not a point. Blue carbon stays a distant maybe: no seagrass credit has sold anywhere yet.